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How Andy Burnham may try to give the UK economy a boost in his 10-year plan What is referral dependency? The hidden risk facing growing businesses Skimpflation: how the Strait of Hormuz is linked to your lasagne
NorthStandard celebrates North East community partnerships Full planning consent for Yorkshire Water's sustainable development Entrepreneur shares hard-earned lessons in new book
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Rhyl's biggest conversation starts now - And £20m is on the table Principle expands into North West
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Focus
By Advance Copy
There are plenty of warning signs for a looming financial crash. And while fears for the near future might sound bleak, it’s better to know the potential risks so you can prepare your business – and your personal life. Now is not the time to panic. Be rational, be smart, and remember, in every crisis there’s opportunity. Read on...
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Why should you care about how AI, the US stock market and the Iran War affect your business? Because they’re the leading factors in what could be the biggest financial crash since the Great Depression of the 1930s, which left 30 million people unemployed worldwide. Something like that probably sounds impossible to imagine today. And while there’s no guarantee that such a forecast will come to pass, the Bank of England has warned of a “sharp correction” in global stock markets (it doesn’t take a genius to work out what that euphemism means). So, when the US president brags about the stock market being at “all-time highs,” remember what followed the last century’s Roaring Twenties. What goes up... Put it this way: the global crash of 2008 would be small-time in comparison. That’s a worry, considering the UK’s failed austerity policy in response has meant that nearly twenty years later, life still hasn’t recovered for ordinary people (that is, ‘ordinary people’ meaning not the unfathomably wealthy). Unlike the 2008 crash, which was driven by the sub-prime mortgage lending scandal, the world’s economy is at risk because of the three potential converging crises: AI, the US stock market and the Iran War. AI profit or loss? The speculation around overvalued AI tech companies grows louder every day. Trillions of US dollars have poured into the sector as investors seek to get in early and reap the financial rewards – much like a modern-day Gold Rush. The money hasn’t just come from US venture capitalists, hedge funds or speculative investors. It’s also nation states, pension providers, and normal people from around the world. That takes money out of their country of origin, and into the US stock market (more on that shortly). But despite the mad scramble to adopt AI across the world, uptake is relatively low (around only 16% of the global population has ever typed in a prompt or used a chatbot). Worse, the AI companies are yet to make a profit. And investors are getting nervous. You could argue that this is standard practice in tech. Companies like Uber, Google and Amazon started as loss-leaders. But here’s the problem: AI is expensive to run. Incredibly expensive, needing immense infrastructure and resources (like water, which would be better used for other purposes). And most current users of AI – around 97% – don’t pay for it. Of those that have paid, such as businesses who saw it as a cost-cutting exercise, MIT Sloan’s research reveals that 95% of their projects have seen zero return on investment. Now, many companies that steamed into AI head-first and cut their workforce considerably, such as Ford and IBM, found that AI cost more and delivered poorer outputs than the actual competent people it replaced. Both companies are now rehiring real humans. It’s like the dot-com bubble of the late ‘90s and early 2000s, where cash flowed into a technology that nobody really understood yet. At the time, the internet’s infrastructure was still in its infancy, so the returns were non-existent. But AI is unlike other notable tech loss-leaders of the past. The sheer spending it needs raises fears that unlike Uber, there’s no possible path to AI profitability ever, and so the bubble might just burst soon. US stocks shock? Warren Buffett, investor and former CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has been so successful in the markets throughout his career that there’s even a market indicator bearing his name: the Buffett Indicator. It’s how he predicted the bursting of the dot-com bubble – and made lots of money from it. The Buffet Indicator measures the value of US stocks versus Gross Domestic Product. The higher the ratio, the more overvalued the market. The time to worry is when that ratio nears 200%. And right now? It’s beyond 233%. The highest it’s ever been. As well as American investors, a big reason for that overvaluation is the $22 trillion of US shares under foreign ownership – including by UK pension and investment funds. Huge sums are concentrated on a small number of companies – mostly AI-led tech ones – so if the Bank of England’s warnings come true, it’s not just the stocks, banks and insurers of the USA that will suffer. It’s here, too. If you have a UK share-based pension, the chances are that around a third of your portfolio is in US stock. Because of such market unrest and fears of a crash, Germany and Canada are moving to redirect pensions towards domestic markets. South Korea is planning similar. But the UK remains silent on the matter – just as it does on the potential impact of the Iran War. Wartime shortages? It’s fair to suggest that for many people in the West who’ve only experienced peacetime, they perhaps see wars and conflicts as something abstract that happens “over there” in distant lands or on the news. But the Iran War is different. We’re already seeing its impact here. Though not in terms of bloodshed, but in finance. Most notably, the skyrocketing costs at the petrol pumps. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is more than just an Iranian tactic to pressure its direct opponents. It cuts the supply of vital commodities that drive the entire global economy. And the result? Soon, there could be a lack of physical goods on our shelves – the economist, Steve Keen, predicts that global food supplies will fall by 20% – so, if the availability of fuel, energy, fertiliser and food drops while demand remains high, prices will soar. And we think inflation is bad now. That supply shock is quietly starting to hit Europe. On 4 July, four Italian airports (Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso and Venice) warned they may run short on jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz closure. As jet fuel prices climb to $195 a barrel (up $100 from before the war), June Goh, oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities commented: “Europe is facing imminent jet fuel supply shortages. Brace yourselves.” According to Argus media, the UK is the country in Europe most exposed to the risk – yet the national media is unusually quiet about it. As you can see, with AI, US stocks and the war all converging, interesting times may lie ahead... if they’re not here already. How to grow? Back in the UK, a cost-of-living crisis has already been a part of British life for years. Stagnant wages and rising prices began with post-2008 austerity, continued through Covid, and are now escalating because of the Iran War. Fast. But it’s not just households feeling the pinch. A recent survey by the Federation of Small Businesses revealed that 23% of business owners’ costs have increased more than 10% year-on-year – mostly because of utilities, wages and taxes. Which would be manageable if business was booming. But for many, it’s not. A staggering 50.6% of business owners reported lower revenues in the last quarter – and as global turmoil now begins to feel more real, the worry is that the trend will continue. Meanwhile, business borrowing, refinancing and interest rates have all become more expensive. It’s no surprise to learn from a Novuna Business Finance report that nine out of ten owners of small businesses say the cost of living threatens their growth. What to focus on? The challenges we’ve seen so far are all external factors. Some haven’t even happened yet – or may not happen at all. However, the risk is very real, so it’s important to know about them so that you can protect yourself. But when it comes to global external factors, they’re out of your control. As always, it’s best to focus on what you can control: your business and its internal constraints. The first of these constraints is your margins. Though reviewing turnover can be reassuring when it’s strong (after all, cash is king), don’t underestimate labour costs, NI and pension deductions and overheads. It seems obvious, but such oversights are common in smaller businesses, especially during economic slowdowns when the focus is understandably on boosting sales in any way you can. Speaking of which, review your pricing structures. If costs are swiftly rising across the board, how can you afford to keep prices static? In effect, that’s making a loss. Make sure your cashflow is as efficient as possible to bring in cash sooner – a rolling forecast can help. And don’t fall into the trap of focusing on profit figures. Profit is a calculation, money in the bank is real (again, cash is king). And there are many more internal constraints within your control. When times are tough, it’s human to focus on cuts to expenditure. And that’s most definitely wise. But not in all cases, even though it might seem counterintuitive. Businesses are often quick to slash marketing expenses. But Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy UK and champion of behavioural science and economics, argues against that. Because while there might be some savings in the short term, you destroy longer-term value and brand equity. Think about it. During a downturn, most people in the same situation – including your competitors – will panic. When they cut their budgets, it’s a prime opportunity for your business to dominate the market – most likely for lower prices – boosting bigger sales. And by building trust in those customers, your marketing generates long-term value creation. If you show the world why you’re different and how you add value in ways that no one else can, then your organisation is in pole position to sail through a downturn and out the other side. Remember, it’s an investment: in your business, in your success, and in you.
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NorthStandard celebrates North East community partnerships
Leading marine insurer NorthStandard has brought together charity partners and community organisations from across the North East as it celebrates another year of investment in local communities, having directed £100,000 towards charities and community projects across the region. Held at NorthStandard’s Newcastle headquarters, the event followed the publication of the company’s latest Sustainability Report and celebrated a year in which the organisation directed £100,000 towards North East charities and community projects, and contributed more than 780 volunteering hours across the region. This commitment to creating positive social impact was recognised through the Outstanding Contribution to Skills and Community Award at Maritime Innovation Week 2025. Representatives from over twenty charities and community organisations gathered at the Quayside office for a Charity Community Impact Evening, to celebrate community champions, strengthen partnerships and encourage collaboration between organisations working to create positive change across the region. The event featured presentations and a Q&A session with NorthStandard’s Katherine Birchall, Global Head of FD&D Claims, Chloe Kelly, CSR Executive, and delegates from Stella Maris, Smart Works and Newcastle Hospitals Charity/Sir Bobby Robson Foundation, providing attendees with the opportunity to learn more about the challenges facing local communities and the initiatives helping to address them. Chloe Kelly, CSR Executive, said: “One of the most rewarding aspects of our CSR programme is bringing together organisations that are making a real difference within our communities. By creating opportunities for collaboration, knowledge sharing and relationship-building, we hope to support the incredible work being carried out by charities and community groups across the region. “While funding and volunteering remain important, we believe lasting impact comes from building genuine partnerships that grow over time and respond to the needs of the organisations we work with.” Over the past year, NorthStandard has supported a range of organisations working to improve health, wellbeing and opportunities for people across the North East, including Maggie’s Newcastle, St Oswald’s Hospice, Greggs Foundation, Newcastle United Foundation, and Children North East, among others. Many of these relationships have developed over several years, reflecting an ongoing commitment to supporting the communities where NorthStandard’s people live and work. One example is its partnership with Greggs Foundation, through which the company has helped provide food to 121 pupils across two primary schools each day – with 23,595 free meals received in one year. The company has also continued to invest in skills and employability initiatives through partnerships with organisations including Ngage and Neuroversal Studios, Smart Works Newcastle and the RISE programme, helping to create opportunities for people across the region. Alongside its community initiatives, NorthStandard’s latest Sustainability Report highlights the organisation’s wider commitment to responsible business and sustainable operations. Recent improvements at its Newcastle headquarters include the installation of air source heat pumps, a modern HVRF system and roof-mounted solar panels, which supply approximately 15 per cent of the site’s electricity requirements. The project was delivered with support from North East businesses, including local design and construction specialists Ward Robinson and Brims Construction. The report also highlights NorthStandard’s commitment to creating a positive workplace culture, with a workforce retention rate of 93 per cent and a broad range of employee benefits designed to support wellbeing, family life, and career development. Commenting on the publication of the report, Kate Kwiatkowska, Head of Sustainability, said: “The past year has been an important step in maturing our sustainability approach. This report demonstrates how sustainability is embedded throughout NorthStandard, from supporting our people and communities to investing in responsible business practices and reducing our environmental impact. We are proud of the progress we have made and remain committed to creating long-term value for our members, employees, and the communities in which we operate.” NorthStandard’s Sustainability Report is available now and provides an overview of the company’s progress and ambitions across its environmental, social and governance priorities. With three key pillars – Partner for Progress, Champion Community, and Operate Responsibly – it demonstrates how the organisation is working to create a positive impact both globally and within the region.
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Steve Schifferes Honorary Research Fellow, City Political Economy Research Centre, City St George's, University of London
Andy Burnham’s long held ambition to be the UK’s prime minister will come with some daunting economic challenges. Productivity growth is at a virtual standstill, real incomes have stagnated and the cost-of-living crisis has become a permanent fixture for many households. Meanwhile, the government spends around £110 billion a year paying the interest on nearly £3 trillion of debt. Burnham says he is on a “10-year mission” to transform the country. So what might he do to try to fix the British economy? One thing that voters can reasonably expect is a move towards greater devolution of power – especially spending power – to the English metro regions. As mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham often argued that too many economic decisions were made in London, and that this held the rest of the country back. Burnham believes that allowing other regions to implement their own locally led pro-growth policies could transform Britain’s economic prospects. It’s a view shared by one of his key economic advisers, Jim O'Neill, who has long argued that creating metro growth hubs could substantially boost the UK’s GDP. This approach is bound to be controversial. It could mean, for example, taking resources away from the £49 billion Heathrow airport expansion plan to help fund HS2 so it can reach the north. More radically, it might require a revamp of the whole system of local government finance, starting with reforming the council tax system, which is still entirely based on property values set in 1991. This would mean higher bills for areas where house prices are high, such as London and the south-east. But it could substantially cut payments for those living elsewhere – which could be popular in red wall constituencies where Labour has been losing support. Social care Burnham has also spoken about reforming the UK’s social care system. Social care is not part of the NHS, which means those who need residential care in old age must either sell their house to fund it, or rely on cash-strapped local councils. Finding a solution to social care has proved too challenging for successive governments. When Burnham was health secretary under Gordon Brown in 2010, he proposed putting a tax on the value of homes after the owner’s death – which critics labelled a “death tax.” Nevertheless, he may try something similar as prime minister. Solving the social care conundrum would dramatically ease the financial strain on the NHS. Nationalisation Another cause that Burnham has recently embraced is tackling the poor performance of the companies that supply households with energy and water. First in line would be Thames Water, which is already facing bankruptcy and a temporary government takeover. A straight-out nationalisation of water would be expensive, with that company alone currently valued at £10 billion. But better public utilities could also boost productivity. Housing development in East Anglia is now being held back by lack of water, for example, as no new reservoirs have been built in the UK since 1992. And a water company which didn’t have to pay out hundreds of millions of pounds to shareholders could mean lower household bills. Bending, not breaking, the fiscal rules Burnham has promised to stand by Labour’s commitments not to increase VAT, income tax or national insurance. He has also pledged to stick by Labour’s fiscal rules, including the key stipulation that day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenues within three years, so that borrowing can only be for long-term capital investment. These rules have been structured in such a way that could still give a Burnham administration considerable leeway to boost spending on public infrastructure. Burnham could argue that increasing public investment this way would pay for itself by boosting UK productivity. He may also want to look at other ways the Treasury could raise money without breaking Labour’s manifesto pledges. There are quite a few options, including higher wealth taxation, or changes to tax relief on pensions and savings. Burnham is also taking advice from Carys Roberts, the former head of the Institute for Public Policy Research think tank, and a strong advocate of wealth taxes, which may indicate his direction of travel. All of these reforms will face fierce political opposition from the Conservatives and the right-wing press, which in the past have been enough to scupper them. But if Burnham keeps his Labour party colleagues happy, he need not face an election for three years. And if he manages to improve public services, boost growth and lower the cost-of-living crisis, he may be able to turn round Labour’s prospects. The key is the government delivering the benefits of higher taxes to ordinary citizens, both by reducing the cost of living and providing improved services. If Burnham can square this circle, while avoiding the ire of financial markets, he will have pulled off a trick which his predecessor singularly failed to do.
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How Andy Burnham may try to give the UK economy a boost in his ‘10‑year plan’
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One of the UK’s most innovative and pioneering sustainable industrial and residential developments, Esholt, is to be delivered by Yorkshire Water and sister company Keyland Developments Ltd with full planning consent from Bradford City Council. 180 acres of redundant land around the Esholt wastewater treatment works will be transformed into an exceptional, nationally recognised development to repurpose the largely brownfield site and deliver a host of economic, social and environmental benefits through innovative employment, sustainable housing and community enhancements. The employment element will see the delivery of up to 100,000m2 of quality, sustainable work spaces to accommodate a mix of industry, with a particular focus on bio-tech businesses and industries that can make the most of heat, power and water generated by the treatment works to maximise sustainability. The sustainable housing element includes 150 homes, from 1-bedroom maisonettes to 5 bedroom detached houses to allow for a diverse community. The sensitive use of local materials along with an innovative blend of technologies and intelligent energy use, landscaping, living with nature through visible water management and shared recreation spaces will result in a community that can sit alongside the nearby Esholt Village. Esholt will also showcase a number of community enhancements designed to create a new community connected to nature and with a real and visible relationship with water, with shared recreation spaces as well as sustainable transport routes to encourage walking and cycling through the site. The masterplan has already achieved national recognition with inclusion in the new RIBA Plan for Use Guide, a new guidance document for sustainable design. With full consent now in place, the next step will be to seek a development partner for the commercial element to work alongside Keyland in the delivery. A purchaser will be sought for the residential element, to create the new homes in line with the sustainable vision for Esholt. Luke Axe, Land & Planning Director at Keyland, said; “To have full planning consent for Esholt enables us to move to the next phase of the delivery process which is to seek like minded partners to bring the development to life. We have an incredible opportunity to create one of the UK’s most impressive and aspirational mixed-use communities and are looking forward to engaging with agents to activate the process.” The Esholt team includes Tate & Co, a leading UK firm of architects on sustainability and natural environments and sustainability consultants 3 ADAPT.
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The team behind Rhyl’s £20 million regeneration programme is launching its biggest community engagement drive, taking the conversation directly into neighbourhoods, community groups, businesses and organisations this summer. Over the coming months, members of the Our Rhyl / Ein Rhyl Board will attend events, workshops, meetings and activities throughout the resort to gather fresh ideas, priorities and ambitions from local people as plans for the town’s future move into their next phase. The extensive programme of engagement will help shape the final long-term vision for Rhyl, identify priorities for future investment, and ensure local voices remain at the heart of decision-making as the Pride in Place programme progresses. Board members will gather views on what people love about Rhyl, what improvements they want to see, and what they want the town to be known for in 10 years’ time. Craig Sparrow, Chair of the Our Rhyl Board, said: “We’ve spent the last year listening to thousands of people and gathering an enormous amount of valuable insight, but we’re not stopping there. “We are now entering a really important phase where we want to get out into the community again, speak to as many people as possible and make sure the final vision for Rhyl reflects the ambitions of the people who live, work and spend time here.” The engagement campaign builds on more than a year of consultation which has already generated hundreds of survey responses, engaged thousands of residents and businesses, and reached a growing online audience through social media, workshops and community events. Earlier this year, a refreshed Board was unveiled to help lead the next chapter of the programme, bringing together expertise from regeneration, tourism, health, policing, faith groups, community organisations and the third sector. Alongside the engagement programme, new themed Action Groups are being established to give residents, businesses and organisations practical opportunities to help shape projects, identify priorities and support delivery of the plan over the coming decade. The groups will play a key role in helping the Board build partnerships, leverage additional funding opportunities and turn community priorities into deliverable projects. Craig added: “This is a chance for people to influence how £20 million of investment can benefit Rhyl over the next decade. We want people to sit up and take notice – this is community-led, it is ambitious, and it is designed to give local people a real voice. “Whether you’re a resident, business owner, community group, young person or volunteer, we want you to be part of what comes next.” The Board will be canvassing opinion at locations including the White Rose Centre, Brickfield Pond, the Town Hall, Coronation Gardens, local supermarkets and retailers, schools, business parks, Marine Lake, the promenade, sports clubs, Queen’s Market and more.
Rhyl’s biggest conversation starts now And £20m is on the table
What Is Referral Dependency? The Hidden Risk Facing Thousands of Growing Businesses
For many business owners, referrals are considered the gold standard of business development. They arrive with trust already established, often convert more quickly than cold enquiries and are widely seen as evidence that a business is delivering exceptional work. Yet an increasing number of business leaders are questioning whether referrals alone are sufficient to support sustainable growth. Dean Seddon, Founder of Maverrik, believes many successful businesses have become what he calls "referral dependent", a position in which recommendations are no longer simply welcomed but have become the primary source of new business. "Referral dependency isn't about receiving referrals," said Dean. "Every business should aspire to earn them. The issue is when referrals become your only reliable source of new clients. At that point, you're placing one of the most important parts of your business, client acquisition, outside of your control." According to Dean, referral dependency often develops gradually. Businesses build strong reputations, deliver excellent results and naturally begin receiving recommendations from satisfied clients. As referrals increase, marketing activity slows, business development becomes less consistent and proactive lead generation receives less attention because new work continues to arrive. For many businesses, this approach appears to work well until market conditions change. Economic uncertainty, changing buying behaviour, staff turnover within client organisations or the loss of a key referrer can all reduce the flow of recommendations. Businesses that have relied predominantly on referrals often find themselves without a predictable way of replacing that lost pipeline. "It's rarely something business owners notice while they're busy," explained Dean. "In fact, referral dependency often disguises itself as success. When work is flowing, there's no obvious reason to invest time building another route to market. The vulnerability only becomes visible when referrals become less predictable." Dean believes the issue is particularly relevant for the UK's growing community of expert-led businesses, including consultants, executive coaches, advisers, technology specialists and professional service firms. As digital technology has made it easier to work with organisations anywhere in the world, the opportunity to export British expertise has grown significantly. However, businesses looking to expand internationally often discover that referral networks become less effective outside their existing markets. "A referral network is naturally strongest where you've already built relationships," said Dean. "If your ambition is to win clients nationally or internationally, referrals become increasingly difficult to rely upon as your only growth strategy. That's where businesses need predictable client acquisition systems that create opportunities regardless of where those opportunities come from." While referrals remain one of the most valuable indicators of trust, Dean argues they should be viewed as one component of a broader growth strategy rather than the strategy itself. He believes businesses should regularly assess how dependent they have become on recommendations by asking a simple question: If referrals stopped tomorrow, where would your next client come from? For organisations able to answer that question confidently, referrals become an additional source of opportunity. For those who cannot, referral dependency may already be limiting future growth. As more businesses seek sustainable ways to generate predictable revenue, Dean believes referral dependency is likely to become an increasingly important conversation within the UK's business community. "The objective isn't to replace referrals," he said. "It's to reduce dependency on them. The strongest businesses don't stop receiving referrals; they simply make sure they have other ways of creating opportunities as well." Maverrik recently launched the Build Beyond Referrals One-Day Intensive, a practical workshop designed to help expert-led businesses develop structured client acquisition systems that work alongside referrals, enabling more consistent growth and reducing reliance on word-of-mouth alone. More information is available at www.buildbeyondreferrals.com.
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Principle expands into North West
One of the UK’s fastest-growing property management specialists has opened a new base in central Manchester, marking its concerted expansion into the region. Principle, which employs 115 people across the UK and at existing locations in Birmingham and London, has invested more than £300,000 into its 111 Piccadilly office and the recruitment of four sector specialists to spearhead its roll-out. This includes the high-profile appointment of Matt Kirk as Property Director for the North West, who brings twenty years of residential property management experience to the role. Previously responsible for building Rendall & Rittner’s Northern operation from the ground up, his focus will be on establishing a strong local team and Manchester portfolio that will see it manage over 5000 homes by 2028. Joe Jobson, Joint Managing Director at Principle, commented: “Manchester boasts outstanding buildings, a growing residential market and real opportunities to make a difference to both clients and residents. “We know from working in Birmingham and London how important it is to have a local presence on the ground, so the decision to open a dedicated offer in the North West was a natural one to make. “Taking office space in central Manchester puts us right at the heart of life in the city and we have ambitious targets to grow revenue in the region to £2.5m within three years.” Principle provides comprehensive property management services to developers, freeholders, RMC directors, for block management and open spaces. Founded in 2018 with the mission to deliver ‘property management, properly done’, the company has grown to over £9m annual revenues, looking after more than 26,000 units, including high-profile schemes at York and Nottingham Terrace, Charlesworth House and Portman Towers in London. Whilst the focus is on residential contacts, there has also been several wins in the commercial space recently, such as 12 St George Street in Mayfair. Matt Kirk, Property Director for the North West, continued: “I’m really excited about this new opportunity with Principle and we are already gaining traction in the region, with a new instruction on Urban Splash’s Albert Mill conversion in the heart of Manchester. “We are really pleased with this early show of faith and look forward to working with the residents to positively impact their homes and their community and, in doing so, grow our reputation locally”. Brett Williams, Managing Director of Principle, concluded: “This office is an important milestone for our business. We’ve taken the time to find the right person to lead our growth in the North West, and now we have the right base to support him and the team he’s quickly building. “The Piccadilly office will manage a growing portfolio of residential and mixed-use developments across Manchester and the wider region, with the company continuing to win new contracts through its existing offices in Birmingham and central London. “We understand that the landscape of property management is ever changing. Our role has never been about bricks and mortar but about the people in the communities we service and the positive impact we can have on their everyday lives. This is the vision and commitment we are bringing to Manchester and beyond.”
Despite the perception that Gen Z is always on their phones, they value sincerity and experience over digital convenience. In-person interactions are your brand's opportunity to stand out
Erhan Kilincarslan Reader in Accounting and Finance, University of Huddersfield
‘Skimpflation’: how the Strait of Hormuz is linked to your lasagne... and other everyday goods
The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz has already made fuel and energy noticeably more expensive. But energy prices are only part of the story. While tensions continue between Iran and the US over that vital stretch of water, another, more subtle economic effect could come into play. “Skimpflation” is the name for a phenomenon that involves a gradual decline in the quality, quantity or service associated with everyday goods. Unlike shrinkflation, where the size or weight of a product is reduced, skimpflation affects the value that consumers receive. It happens when companies attempt to keep prices the same while quietly reducing quality, ingredients or service levels. So instead of raising the price of a ready meal, for example, a manufacturer may replace or reduce some of the key ingredients with cheaper substitutes. The price and packaging remain the same, but there may be less pork in your sausages, or less beef in your lasagne. Similar adjustments can also occur in service industries. Restaurants may keep menu prices stable but switch to cheaper ingredients. Hotels might choose to subtly cut service levels, such as housekeeping, to reduce costs (as some did during the pandemic). Airlines – already worried about jet fuel supplies – could adopt cost-saving strategies, such as reducing complimentary food or baggage allowances. In each case, the price paid by consumers may appear unchanged, but the quality or level of service gradually declines, meaning customers effectively receive less value for the same money. These kinds of adjustments are carefully designed to be barely noticeable. Businesses hope that consumers will continue to buy their products and use their services without being aware of the changes. But they could become more widespread if economic circumstances mean that organisations need to make more savings. And they represent yet another economic ripple effect that comes from effectively shutting down a major oil and gas shipping corridor. Energy levels The world has already seen how quickly oil prices and energy markets react to the possibility of supply shortages. For countries (like the UK) which depend heavily on imported energy, these shocks function like an economic tax, raising fuel costs and inflation. And energy costs affect nearly every stage of modern production and distribution. When fuel becomes more expensive, so does transport, running factories and producing food. A rise in oil prices can quickly evolve into a broader inflationary shock affecting shipping, logistics and industrial production. These pressures ultimately reach consumers, but often indirectly. And businesses facing rising costs must decide how to respond. Raising prices is the most obvious option, but after several years of high inflation, many firms worry that consumers are already highly sensitive to price increases. Eventually though, these costs must be absorbed somewhere in the system, either through higher prices or changes in quality and service. This is why geopolitical energy shocks are often described as “inflationary events”, even if consumer price indices do not immediately capture their full impact. The real cost of living may rise not only through higher prices, but also through a decline in what those prices buy. Economists might describe this process as a form of “hidden inflation”, where businesses respond to rising costs by quietly altering product composition or reducing service levels rather than raising prices outright. Analysis of recent cost pressures suggests that recipe reformulation, ingredient substitution and service reductions have become common strategies for firms attempting to manage higher input costs in sectors such as food manufacturing, retail and hospitality. If instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping routes and energy markets, the UK could face renewed inflationary pressures. But for households, the effects may not always appear in official statistics. Instead, they may appear in smaller portions at restaurants, reduced service levels in hospitality, or supermarket products that look familiar but contain slightly cheaper ingredients. These incremental adjustments are harder to measure than price changes, but shape everyday consumer experiences through a gradual erosion of value.
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Guilherme Klein Martins Lecturer in Economics, University of Leeds
An entrepreneur who left school at sixteen and began his career on a £50-a-week apprenticeship is helping others to build successful businesses without relying on luck, privilege or shortcuts. Apprentice to Entrepreneur: Real Life Lessons for Building a Business that Works sees entrepreneur and business leader Wayne Quinn share the practical lessons he learned whilst building businesses across construction, engineering, renewable energy, property and hospitality over the course of three decades. The book charts his journey from an apprentice to the owner of multiple successful companies, including Hull-based engineering specialist PEMEC. Unlike many business books that focus on theory or overnight success stories, Apprentice to Entrepreneur takes a refreshingly honest approach. Drawing on real experiences, setbacks and successes, Quinn explores the realities of entrepreneurship, highlighting the determination, resilience and consistency required to turn an idea into a thriving business. The book is aimed at aspiring entrepreneurs, business owners and professionals who feel capable of more but are unsure how to take the next step. Rather than promising quick wins, it focuses on proven principles that can be applied by anyone willing to put in the work. Wayne Quinn said: “For many years, people have asked me how I got started and what lessons I’ve learned along the way. This book is my attempt to answer those questions honestly. I didn’t come from a privileged background and I didn’t have a blueprint for success. What I did have was a willingness to learn, keep going when things got tough and take responsibility for my own future. “I wanted to write something that would be useful to those who are where I once was; people who are working hard, wanting more from life and wondering how to get there. Success isn’t about having all the answers. It’s about taking action, learning from mistakes and staying the course.” Throughout the book, Quinn reflects on the challenges of building businesses from the ground up, managing people, navigating setbacks and maintaining momentum during difficult periods. The result is a straightforward and relatable guide for anyone looking to create opportunities for themselves. “This isn’t armchair theory,” said Quinn. “It’s about learning how to build independence and thinking like a business owner even if you’re still an employee. The key is to avoid the trap of playing it safe and stop waiting for the perfect conditions. If you want control over your time, income and future, this book is for you.” The publication comes at a time when entrepreneurship and self-employment continue to attract growing interest across the UK, particularly with people seeking greater ownership over their careers. As well as sharing his personal story, Quinn hopes the book will inspire readers to recognise that the best businesses are often built through persistence rather than perfection. “There’s no secret formula,” he added. “Most successful businesses evolve through thousands of small decisions, plenty of hard work and a determination not to give up. If this book helps even one person to take that first step towards building something of their own, then it will have been worthwhile.” Apprentice to Entrepreneur is available now from Amazon as a paperback, hardback, audiobook and Kindle edition.
Entrepreneur Shares Hard-Earned Lessons in New Book
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